АНАЛІЗ ТА МОДЕЛЮВАННЯ ДИНАМІКИ НАДХОДЖЕНЬ ДО БЮДЖЕТІВ ОБ’ЄДНАНИХ ТЕРИТОРІАЛЬНИХ ГРОМАД ЗАПОРІЗЬКОЇ ОБЛАСТІ
Ключові слова:
об’єднана територіальна громада, фрактальний аналіз, місцевий бюджет, надходження бюджету, кластерний аналіз, децентралізація.
Анотація
Об’єднана територіальна громада (ОТГ) як об’єкт, утворений шляхом добровільного об’єднання територіальних громад в межах однієї області, має єдиний орган місцевого самоврядування, наділений додатковими повноваженнями та бюджетними надходженнями. На даний час актуальною проблемою для кожної ОТГ є усвідомлення не тільки обсягів бюджетних надходжень, але їх структури, характеру динаміки в цілому та у розрізі їх видів. Планування доходів ОТГ потребує їх прогнозування, а застосування релевантного інструментарію прогнозування зумовлює необхідність дослідження особливостей їх структури та динаміки. Метою цієї роботи є аналіз структури та динаміки надходжень до бюджетів ОТГ Запорізької області та розробка рекомендацій керівництву громад щодо вибору об’єкту, моделей та методів прогнозування надходжень. У роботі проведено аналіз сучасного стану реформи децентралізації в Запорізькій області. Проаналізовані динаміка і структура надходжень до бюджетів ОТГ Запорізької області за 2016-2019 роки. Визначено тенденції динаміки формування доходів місцевих бюджетів. Для бюджету Веселівської ОТГ проведено кластерний аналіз, на основі якого виявлено, що надходження розділяються на чотири групи, які мають подібну динаміку. Проведено фрактальний аналіз надходжень. На основі аналізу розроблено рекомендації щодо вибору об’єкту, моделей і методів для прогнозування надходжень.
Посилання
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12. Buchynska, A.Y. (2013). Formy publichnoyi diyalnosti orhaniv mistsevoho samovryaduvannya Polshchi ta Ukrayiny: porivnyalnyy analiz [Forms of public activity of local governments of Poland and Ukraine: a comparative analysis]. Visnyk Zaporizʹkoho natsionalnoho universytetu. Yurydychni nauky – Bulletin of Zaporizhzhia National University. Legal sciences, 1(2), 69-76 [in Ukrainian].
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15. Pasichnyk, YU.V. (2019). The impact of public debt on economic growth in the countries of the Visegrad group. Ekonomichnyy visnyk. Seriya : Finansy, oblik, opodatkuvannya – Economic Bulletin. Series: Finance, accounting, taxation, 3, 189-203 [in Ukrainian].
16. Lyubchenko, P.M. (2015). Zarubizhnyy dosvid orhanizatsiyi kontrolyu u sferi mistsevoho samovryaduvannya [Foreign experience of control in the field of local government]. Derzhavne budivnytstvo ta mistseve samovryaduvannya – State building and local self-government, 29, 18-31 [in Ukrainian].
17. Serohin, S.S. (2016). Reformuvannya mistsevykh finansiv v umovakh yevrointehratsiyi [Reforming local finances in terms of European integration]. Aspekty publichnoho upravlinnya – Aspects of public administration, 4-5, 87-96 [in Ukrainian].
18. Yaroshenko, I.V. (2015). Problemni pytannya realizatsiyi reformy detsentralizatsiyi vlady v Ukrayini [Problematic issues of implementation of the decentralization reform in Ukraine]. Problemy ekonomiky – Problems of the economy, 4, 177-187 [in Ukrainian].
19. Hryshko, R.YU. (2016). Istoriya transformatsiynykh peretvorenʹ ukrayinskoyi modeli samovryaduvannya [History of transformational transformations of the Ukrainian model of self-government]. Pravo ta derzhavne upravlinnya - Law and public administration, 4, 107-112 [in Ukrainian].
20. Bardina, T.O. (2018). Rozvytok silskykh terytoriy v umovakh reformy detsentralizatsiyi [Development of rural areas in terms of decentralization reform]. Exstended abstract of candidate’s thesis. Poltava [in Ukrainian].
21. Kyrylenko, O.P., & Vatslavskyy, O.I. (2018). Byudzhetnyy kontrol pry planuvanni mistsevykh byudzhetiv [Budget control in planning local budgets]. Svit finansiv – The world of finance, 4, 40-51 [in Ukrainian].
22. Yuriy, S.M. (2016). Teoretychni zasady mistsevoho samovryaduvannya: zakonodavche vyznachennya ta perspektyvy rozvytku [Theoretical principles of local government: legislative definition and prospects for development]. Naukovyy visnyk Mizhnarodnoho humanitarnoho universytetu. Seriya. Ekonomika i menedzhment – Scientific Bulletin of the International Humanities University. Series. Economics and management, 18, 145-148 [in Ukrainian].
23. Pohoryelov, V.S. (2017). Orhanizatsiya mizhbyudzhetnykh vidnosyn v umovakh fiskalnoyi detsentralizatsiyi [Organization of intergovernmental relations in terms of fiscal decentralization]. Ekonomika Ukrayiny – Ukraine economy, 7, 64-73 [in Ukrainian].
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27. Dudar, O.I., & Maksyshko, N.K. (2019). Klasternyy analiz podatkovykh nadkhodzhen Veselivskoyi OTH Zaporizkoyi oblasti [Cluster analysis of tax revenues Veselivska UTC Zaporizhzhia region]. Proceedings from Vyklyky ta perspektyvy rozvytku novoyi ekonomiky na svitovomu, derzhavnomu ta rehionalʹnomu rivnyakh: zbirnyk materialiv XIV Mizhnarodnoyi naukovo-praktichnoyi konferentsiyi – Challenges and prospects for the development of the new economy at the global, state and regional levels: a collection of materials of the XIV International Scientific and Practical Conference. (pp. 287-290). Zaporizhzhia: ZNU [in Ukrainian]
28. Ofitsiyna storinka proyektu R [Official page of the project R]. r-project.org. Retrieved from http://www.r-project.org [in Ukrainian].
29. Fabus, M., Dubrovina, N., Guryanova, L., Chernova, N., & Zyma, O. (2019). Strengthening financial decentralization: driver or risk factor for sustainable socio-economic development of territories. Entrepreneurship and Sustainability. Issues 7(2). P. 875-890. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.9770/jesi.2019.7.2(6).
30. Maksyshko, N.K. (2009). Modelyuvannya ekonomiky metodamy dyskretnoyi neliniynoyi dynamiky [Modeling of economy by methods of discrete nonlinear dynamics]. Zaporizhzhia: Polygraph [in Ukrainian].
2. Bukovynskyy, S. (2012). Do pytannya modernizatsiyi derzhavnoho ta mistsevykh byudzhetiv [On the modernization of state and local budgets]. Svit finansiv – The world of finance, 2, 188-193 [in Ukrainian].
3. Buryachenko, A.YE., & Filimoshkina, I.O. (2018). Fiskalna detsentralizatsiya ta finansova spromozhnist mistsevoho samovryaduvannya v Ukrayini [Fiscal decentralization and financial capacity of local government in Ukraine]. Finansy Ukrayiny – Finance of Ukraine, 5, 56-68 [in Ukrainian].
4. Kyrylenko, O.P., & Vatslavskyy, O.I. (2018). Byudzhetnyy kontrol pry planuvanni mistsevykh byudzhetiv [Budget control in planning local budgets]. Svit finansiv – The world of finance, 4, 40-51 [in Ukrainian].
5. Kovalyuk, O.M., & Danchevska, I.R. (2016). Kharakterystyka orhaniv derzhavnoho finansovoho kontrolyu vykorystannya koshtiv mistsevykh byudzhetiv Ukrayiny [Characteristics of bodies of the state financial control of use of means of local budgets of Ukraine]. Skhidna Yevropa: ekonomika, biznes ta upravlinnya – Eastern Europe: Economy, Business and Management, 2, 272-275 [in Ukrainian].
6. Halhash, R., Semenenko, I., Bilous, YA., & Burko, IA. (2020). Impact of Decentralization on Sustainable Development of the Newly Created Amalgamated Territorial Communities in the Regions of Ukraine. European Journal of Sustainable Development, 9 (1), 19-33. Retrieved from: DOI: 10.14207/ejsd.2020.v9n1p19 [in Ukrainian].
7. Kulchytskyy, M.I. (2011). Mistsevi byudzhety i mekhanizm yikh formuvannya [Local budgets and the mechanism of their formation]. Finansy Ukrayiny – Finance of Ukraine, 9, 99-102 [in Ukrainian].
8. Oparin, V.M., & Piontko, N.B. (2017). Derzhavnyy fond rehionalnoho rozvytku v systemi finansovoho vyrivnyuvannya [State Fund for Regional Development in the system of financial equalization]. Finansy Ukrayiny – Finance of Ukraine, 7, 25-42 [in Ukrainian].
9. Pasichnyk, YU.V. (2018). Teoretyko-metodolohichne obgruntuvannya rozvytku mistsevykh byudzhetiv v umovakh detsentralizatsiyi [Theoretical and methodological justification for the development of local budgets in terms of decentralization]. Problemy ekonomiky – Problems of the economy, 4, 264-270 [in Ukrainian].
10. Batanov, O.V., & Kravchenko, V.V. (2018). Mistseve samovryaduvannya yak instytut hromadyansʹkoho suspilʹstva: munitsypalno-pravovi problemy vzayemodiyi ta funktsionuvannya [Local self-government as an institution of civil society: municipal and legal problems of interaction and functioning]. Aspekty publichnoho upravlinnya – Aspects of public administration, 6-7, 45-53 [in Ukrainian].
11. Baranovska, T.M. (2015). Detsentralizatsiya vlady yak osnovnyy napryam vdoskonalennya derzhavnoyi polityky rozvytku terytorialnoyi hromady [Decentralization of power as the main direction of improving the state policy of territorial community development]. Aktualni problemy derzhavnoho upravlinnya – Actual problems of public administration, 2, 145-153 [in Ukrainian].
12. Buchynska, A.Y. (2013). Formy publichnoyi diyalnosti orhaniv mistsevoho samovryaduvannya Polshchi ta Ukrayiny: porivnyalnyy analiz [Forms of public activity of local governments of Poland and Ukraine: a comparative analysis]. Visnyk Zaporizʹkoho natsionalnoho universytetu. Yurydychni nauky – Bulletin of Zaporizhzhia National University. Legal sciences, 1(2), 69-76 [in Ukrainian].
13. Hladiy, V.I. (2015). Reformuvannya systemy mistsevoho samovryaduvannya: dosvid Vyshehradskoyi hrupy. [Reforming the system of local self-government: the experience of the Visegrad Group]. Hrani – Faces, 12(1), 57-63 [in Ukrainian].
14. Kondratska N. M. (2015). Suchasna systemno-strukturna orhanizatsiya mistsevoho samovryaduvannya v Ukrayini [Modern system-structural organization of local self-government in Ukraine]. Naukovyy visnyk Uzhhorodskoho natsionalnoho universytetu. Seriya. Pravo – Scientific Bulletin of Uzhhorod National University. Series. Law, 35(2.1), 91-96 [in Ukrainian].
15. Pasichnyk, YU.V. (2019). The impact of public debt on economic growth in the countries of the Visegrad group. Ekonomichnyy visnyk. Seriya : Finansy, oblik, opodatkuvannya – Economic Bulletin. Series: Finance, accounting, taxation, 3, 189-203 [in Ukrainian].
16. Lyubchenko, P.M. (2015). Zarubizhnyy dosvid orhanizatsiyi kontrolyu u sferi mistsevoho samovryaduvannya [Foreign experience of control in the field of local government]. Derzhavne budivnytstvo ta mistseve samovryaduvannya – State building and local self-government, 29, 18-31 [in Ukrainian].
17. Serohin, S.S. (2016). Reformuvannya mistsevykh finansiv v umovakh yevrointehratsiyi [Reforming local finances in terms of European integration]. Aspekty publichnoho upravlinnya – Aspects of public administration, 4-5, 87-96 [in Ukrainian].
18. Yaroshenko, I.V. (2015). Problemni pytannya realizatsiyi reformy detsentralizatsiyi vlady v Ukrayini [Problematic issues of implementation of the decentralization reform in Ukraine]. Problemy ekonomiky – Problems of the economy, 4, 177-187 [in Ukrainian].
19. Hryshko, R.YU. (2016). Istoriya transformatsiynykh peretvorenʹ ukrayinskoyi modeli samovryaduvannya [History of transformational transformations of the Ukrainian model of self-government]. Pravo ta derzhavne upravlinnya - Law and public administration, 4, 107-112 [in Ukrainian].
20. Bardina, T.O. (2018). Rozvytok silskykh terytoriy v umovakh reformy detsentralizatsiyi [Development of rural areas in terms of decentralization reform]. Exstended abstract of candidate’s thesis. Poltava [in Ukrainian].
21. Kyrylenko, O.P., & Vatslavskyy, O.I. (2018). Byudzhetnyy kontrol pry planuvanni mistsevykh byudzhetiv [Budget control in planning local budgets]. Svit finansiv – The world of finance, 4, 40-51 [in Ukrainian].
22. Yuriy, S.M. (2016). Teoretychni zasady mistsevoho samovryaduvannya: zakonodavche vyznachennya ta perspektyvy rozvytku [Theoretical principles of local government: legislative definition and prospects for development]. Naukovyy visnyk Mizhnarodnoho humanitarnoho universytetu. Seriya. Ekonomika i menedzhment – Scientific Bulletin of the International Humanities University. Series. Economics and management, 18, 145-148 [in Ukrainian].
23. Pohoryelov, V.S. (2017). Orhanizatsiya mizhbyudzhetnykh vidnosyn v umovakh fiskalnoyi detsentralizatsiyi [Organization of intergovernmental relations in terms of fiscal decentralization]. Ekonomika Ukrayiny – Ukraine economy, 7, 64-73 [in Ukrainian].
24. Ofitsiynyy sayt Detsentralizatsiyi vlady [Official site of Decentralization of Power]. decentralization.gov.ua. Retrieved from https://decentralization.gov.ua [in Ukrainian].
25. Pro byudzhetnu klasyfikatsiyu: nakaz Ministerstva finansiv Ukrayiny vid 14 sichnya 2011 r. № 11 [On budget classification: order of the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine of January 14, 2011 № 11]. zakon.rada.gov.ua. Retrieved from https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/rada/show/v0011201-11/paran25 [in Ukrainian].
26. Shitikov, V.K., & Mastitsky, S.E. (2017) Klassifikatsiya, regressiya, algoritmy Data Mining s ispolzovaniyem R [Classification, regression, algorithms Data Mining using R]. github.com/ranalytics/data-mining. Retrieved from https://github.com/ranalytics/data-mining [in Ukrainian].
27. Dudar, O.I., & Maksyshko, N.K. (2019). Klasternyy analiz podatkovykh nadkhodzhen Veselivskoyi OTH Zaporizkoyi oblasti [Cluster analysis of tax revenues Veselivska UTC Zaporizhzhia region]. Proceedings from Vyklyky ta perspektyvy rozvytku novoyi ekonomiky na svitovomu, derzhavnomu ta rehionalʹnomu rivnyakh: zbirnyk materialiv XIV Mizhnarodnoyi naukovo-praktichnoyi konferentsiyi – Challenges and prospects for the development of the new economy at the global, state and regional levels: a collection of materials of the XIV International Scientific and Practical Conference. (pp. 287-290). Zaporizhzhia: ZNU [in Ukrainian]
28. Ofitsiyna storinka proyektu R [Official page of the project R]. r-project.org. Retrieved from http://www.r-project.org [in Ukrainian].
29. Fabus, M., Dubrovina, N., Guryanova, L., Chernova, N., & Zyma, O. (2019). Strengthening financial decentralization: driver or risk factor for sustainable socio-economic development of territories. Entrepreneurship and Sustainability. Issues 7(2). P. 875-890. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.9770/jesi.2019.7.2(6).
30. Maksyshko, N.K. (2009). Modelyuvannya ekonomiky metodamy dyskretnoyi neliniynoyi dynamiky [Modeling of economy by methods of discrete nonlinear dynamics]. Zaporizhzhia: Polygraph [in Ukrainian].
Опубліковано
2020-09-29
Як цитувати
Баштанник , О., Полова , А., & Максишко , Н. (2020). АНАЛІЗ ТА МОДЕЛЮВАННЯ ДИНАМІКИ НАДХОДЖЕНЬ ДО БЮДЖЕТІВ ОБ’ЄДНАНИХ ТЕРИТОРІАЛЬНИХ ГРОМАД ЗАПОРІЗЬКОЇ ОБЛАСТІ. Фінансові стратегії інноваційного розвитку економіки, (3 (47), 126-135. вилучено із https://journalsofznu.zp.ua/index.php/economics/article/view/1427
Розділ
Фінанси і грошовий обіг
