ANALYSIS OF THE MORTGAGE LENDING MARKET OF UKRAINE FOR THE PRESENCE OF SIGNS OF A PRICE BUBBLE FORMATION

  • I.V. Kozin
  • О.І. Makarenko
Keywords: Ukraine, mortgage lending, real estate, fundamental price, price bubble

Abstract

The article is devoted to the study of the mortgage lending market in Ukraine in terms of the presence of signs of price bubble formation. The dynamics of the mortgage lending market in Ukraine is analyzed. Mortgage lending in Ukraine in 2019 increased 2.9 times compared to 2006, that is the demand for mortgage lending among non-financial corporations in Ukraine is growing in contrast to the demand for mortgage lending to households. Thus, until 2008 there was an increase in demand, 7.2 times compared to 2006, and then a gradual decrease. The mortgage market is a complex economic system, which is characterized by cyclical development. An inevitable component of any economic cycle is a crisis, so it is important to be able to identify and prevent processes that accelerate the onset of crisis economic phenomena. Research of the mortgage lending market of Ukraine on the presence of signs of price bubble formation should be carried out in four stages: determination of the fundamental price; comparison of actual and fundamental prices; analysis of the rate of change in real estate prices and the rate of change in mortgage lending; conclusions on the presence of a financial bubble in the mortgage market. It is proposed to determine the fundamental price of real estate, assuming that the current discount rate of the NBU affects the value of real estate in the next period, ie has a lag of one period. As a result of the research, it was concluded that in the market of mortgage lending in Ukraine for the period from 2003 to 2019, the formation of a financial bubble did not occur.

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Published
2021-08-12
How to Cite
Kozin, I., & MakarenkoО. (2021). ANALYSIS OF THE MORTGAGE LENDING MARKET OF UKRAINE FOR THE PRESENCE OF SIGNS OF A PRICE BUBBLE FORMATION. Financial Strategies of Innovative Economic Development , (2 (50), 134-140. https://doi.org/10.26661/2414-0287-2021-2-50-25
Section
Еconomic and mathematical modeling and information technologies in economics