FORECAST CONSEQUENCES AND PROSPECTS OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN CASE OF OVERCOMING THE PANDEMIC
The entire international community, since mid-December 2019, has come under the huge influence of the global epidemic of coronavirus disease, which is called COVID-19. The pandemic has already led to thousands of human losses around the world, caused significant restrictions on the socio-cultural life of the population and radically changed the trends of the global economy. Today, it is difficult to predict what final human casualties and economic losses states will suffer in the short, medium and long term.
The World Health Organization officially declared the coronavirus disease a pandemic in early March 2020. The outbreak began in mid-December 2019 in the city of Wuhan in central China.
During this time, the pandemic has significantly affected the trends in the development of the global economy, leaving not a single country aside.
The crisis that the world will experience as a result of the spread of COVID-19 is global; it will hit all countries with open market economies. This will especially shake the financial and economic situation of Ukraine, whose economy in recent years has already been unstable and dependent on global trends, political events and public sentiment.
For the Ukrainian economy, the crisis caused by the spread of COVID-19 is particularly dangerous and can significantly shake the country's financial and economic potential: official employment and real GDP will fall, the corporate sector will incur significant costs, the chances of successful placement of Eurobonds will decrease, the inflow of foreign investment will decrease, and the national currency will become cheaper.
Sectors where quarantine restrictions are relaxed and which related to consumer demand are recovering rapidly, primarily retail and services. The situation with industry and investment demand is weaker.
In the context of the further spread of COVID-19 in Ukraine, as in the world as a whole, there will also be a slowdown in construction volumes, a reduction in road repairs, and so on. According to experts, it is positive that the demand for agricultural products will not decrease, and prices for them are not expected to fall. At the same time, individual countries may restrict the import of products of foreign origin in order to prevent the spread of the virus.
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