WORLD ECONOMY AND PANDEMIA: IMPACT AND FORECASTS
The article deals with the problem of ensuring the viability of the world economy during a pandemic. The end of 2019 and the beginning of 2020 caused panic by the outbreak of the coronavirus, which, in addition to the great human suffering, has caused damage to the world economy, the worsening of economic, social and political climate in the world. The epidemic has become one of the biggest threats to the global economy and financial markets. Most financial institutions and banks have stopped predicting the future of the global economy. Meanwhile, fears of the impact of the coronavirus on the global economy have shaken the world's securities markets, actively changing currency rates and so on. Most economists in the world believe that the current epidemic can lead to very severe economic shocks, even at relatively low mortality, this pandemic is worse than the trade wars. Severe epidemics rarely occur, and the magnitude of damage has affected the global economy for decades. Economists estimate epidemic losses at 0.7% of world income in terms of each year (including years when there are no epidemics). The more severe the epidemic is, the higher is its relative cost (in other words, each death in the event of a severe case will cost to the world economy more expensive than in the milder case). With regard to the coronavirus pandemic, according to the Oxford Economics analyst, global GDP will decline by 1.1 trillion in 2020 (1.3%) if it turns into a worldwide, widespread epidemic. It is difficult to say what the world is expecting even in the near future, because the situation is uncertain enough, but most of all the world economy is facing a protracted recession and a new stage of the global economic crisis. Experts from economists at Moody`s Analytics believe that the impact of the 2020 epidemic on the global economy can be far worse than the effects of the global recession of 2008-2009. Therefore, at this time, the governments of the countries need to analyze the situation in a timely manner and act effectively, using the tools to combat economic crises, to make rational decisions regarding the increase of budget expenditures.
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